Arera power and gas tariff trend

Periodic Adjustment of Tariffs for Protection Services

Electricity Supply Tariffs

According to ARERA data for electricity, expectations regarding natural gas market prices for the second quarter of 2024, buoyed by a historically high level of European gas storage at the end of the supply season due to a relatively mild winter, have resulted in an estimated electricity price (PUN) of around €83/MWh in the second quarter of 2024.

In terms of final effects, the expenditure for the standard family [1] in the current year (from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024) [2] is expected to be approximately €662, a decrease of 47.7% compared to the equivalent 12 months of the previous year (July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024).

As of December 31, 2023, almost 73% of domestic customers had opted for a market offer, therefore, non-vulnerable domestic customers served under Greater Protection amounted to approximately 4.5 million.

Starting from July 1, all non-vulnerable customers served under Greater Protection will automatically switch to Gradual Protection Service, with the supplier selected through an auction in that area. This transitional service will be active for just under three years (until March 31, 2027), after which, in the absence of an explicit choice, customers will continue to be supplied by the same seller in the free market.

For vulnerable customers, ARERA will continue to quarterly update the economic conditions of Greater Protection until the auctions provided for by Decree-Law 181/23 (so-called 'energy security' Decree) are implemented.

[1] The standard family has average electricity consumption of 2,700 kWh per year and an engaged power of 3 kW.

[2] By current year, we mean the year composed of the quarter subject to the update and the three preceding quarters, considering also the consumption associated with each quarter.

Quarterly variations of the economic protection conditions for power (ARERA data)

Natural gas supply tariffs

Starting from January 2024, the gas protection service has been replaced by the vulnerability protection service, intended solely for vulnerable domestic customers.

From January 2024, the Authority, following the same timing and methods as in previous months, publishes on its website the gas price component covering procurement costs, applied to customers under the vulnerability protection service. The gas price component covering procurement costs (CMEM, m), applied to customers under the vulnerability protection service, is updated by ARERA as the monthly average price on the Italian wholesale market (the PSV day ahead) and published within the first 2 working days of the following month.

For the month of March, which saw wholesale prices rise compared to those recorded in February, the price of the gas commodity alone (CMEM,m), for customers in the vulnerability protection service, is € 28.74/MWh*.

Starting from January 2024, the gas withdrawal characteristics of the so-called "standard user" are modified to be more up-to-date and consistent with the scope of application of the gas vulnerability protection service. The new standard user is characterized by an average annual gas withdrawal of 1100 cubic meters, instead of 1400 cubic meters annually.

It is reminded that for gas, as well as for heat management and district heating, normal VAT rates have been reinstated for all customers since January.

Value of the raw material of the Vulnerability Protection Service

(**) for supplies of natural gas with a reference higher heating value equal to 0.038520 GJ/Smc