Seeing the present and anticipating the future, even in the time of Covid-19

«Data tells many stories», says Michele Intartaglia, an engineer with a PhD in electrical measurements. Together with Gianluca Tagliapietra, an economist specializing in statistics, he is part of the team responsible for one of the most delicate and fascinating tasks at Enel Energia: monitoring and forecasting energy consumption. Measuring the present and anticipating the future. «Ours is a privileged observatory on the state of the country. From the trend of electricity consumption, we can understand how Italians are doing, how economic activities are performing, and what condition Italy is in as a whole». Energy is like the nation’s thermometer, but just placing it near the body is not enough to know the temperature. The hardest part is not collecting the data, but reading it, understanding it, and using it for future predictions.

The forecasting process relies on two key elements: data and models. The latter are the tools that allow us to find meaning and logic in numbers. «This work is a mix of statistics, computer science, and experience», summarizes Tagliapietra. The raw material is data. The computer models are the technology that processes it, turning information into knowledge. «Then there’s the human factor, which allows you to guide the algorithm, to ask the right questions in order to get useful answers». The ultimate goal is the «demand forecast»: predicting future consumption by individuals and businesses with the smallest possible margin of error. Forecasting the energy that customers will consume in the short and medium term is essential because electricity is a service that is produced and consumed simultaneously, so the energy fed into the power grid must always equal the energy drawn. «Being able to anticipate demand helps to keep the grid balanced and secure, optimizing resources, especially those from renewable sources, thus also contributing to the development of sustainable energy», concludes Intartaglia.

This task, already extremely complex in itself, entered an entirely new phase when the pandemic hit Italy at the end of February. Intartaglia and Tagliapietra describe it as «a very long August», because traditionally the month of August, for those who work in energy forecasting, is unpredictable, outside of statistics. Technically, an event like Covid-19 is called a «structural break», the moment when previous logic no longer explains phenomena because we are living in a new world. In March, it was hard to know how much energy Italian households and businesses would consume in May. «That was the most complex moment. It took great teamwork to navigate the months of the pandemic. But that period was fundamental. We learned more from March to now than in all the previous years». The challenges faced by the team were like an advanced, intensive masterclass in forecasting — and their results proved it.

The results were excellent, thanks to teamwork, timing, and the innovation deployed over the years. The rollout of new smart meters created the conditions for receiving a much more precise and accurate flow of data than before, without which navigating through the break would have been impossible. «Reading that flow was still in its experimental phase, an exercise we had only recently begun. We had to industrialize it, in a short time and with very little margin». At that stage, the team’s willingness to change well-established methods was key, allowing them to create new models for reading data. With this technological and professional effort, Enel Energia was able to react quickly, interpret changes rapidly, and identify the underlying trends in order to develop short- and long-term scenarios. It’s like moving from black and white to an ultra-high-resolution color photograph. «There are about 14 million smart meters in Italy today. Within five years they will be widespread. They allow residential users a more conscious and advanced use of energy, and they allow us to know and forecast consumption more effectively». Data tells many stories, as we said at the beginning. Through smart meters, the forecast team saw the image of an Italy that held strong, persevered, and is now preparing to start again.