Arera power and gas tariff trend

The Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and the Environment (ARERA) publishes the update of the economic conditions of the protection services, quarterly for power and monthly for gas.

Periodic Adjustment of Tariffs for Protected Services

Electricity Supply Tariffs

According to ARERA data for electricity, price projections for the second quarter of 2026 indicate an 8.1% increase in electricity bills for the vulnerable "typical customer"[1] served under the Greater Protection regime. Uncertainty over the duration of the conflict in the Middle East has caused an unexpected increase in energy product prices on international markets, with a direct impact on electricity bills, where the increase in energy expenditure is only partially offset by a 2.2% reduction in the dispatching price (PD). Currently, the system charges component remains unchanged, thanks to optimized management of the currently available liquidity.

The expenditure for the typical vulnerable customer in the Protected Market will be approximately 589.34 euros for the period from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026, an increase of 4.5% compared to the 563.76 euros recorded between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025.

From January 1, 2026, the reference price for electricity for the typical customer will be 30.24 cents per kilowatt-hour, including taxes.

Conditions for Transition to the Gradual Protection Service: From July 1, 2024, all non-vulnerable customers previously served under the Standard Offer regime were automatically transferred to the Gradual Protection Service, with the supplier selected via auction in the relevant area. This transitional service will be active for just under three years (until March 31, 2027), after which, in the absence of an explicit choice, customers will continue to be supplied by the same vendor on the free market.

Updates for Vulnerable Customers: ARERA will continue to monitor and update quarterly the economic conditions of the Standard Offer regime for vulnerable customers, including tariff updates such as those provided by Decree-Law 181/23 on energy security. The typical household has average annual electricity consumption of 2,700 kWh and a committed power of 3 kW.

[1] This refers to vulnerable customers with annual consumption of 2,000 kWh and a committed power of 3 kW. The calculation for the ‘average’ vulnerable customer, with consumption of 2,700 kWh/year and 3 kW power, is available on the Authority's website.

Quarterly variations of the economic protection conditions for power (ARERA data)

Natural gas supply rates

Starting from January 2024, the gas protection service has been replaced by the vulnerability protection service, intended for domestic customers only vulnerable. ARERA also makes public on its website (for the first time since the end of electricity protection) the fees for the month of July 2024 which apply to non-vulnerable domestic customers included in the Gradual Protection Service.

From January 2024, the Authority, with the same times and methods as in previous months, publish on the site the price component of the gas to cover supply costs, applied to customers of the vulnerability protection service. The component of the gas price to cover supply costs (CMEM,m), applied to customers in the vulnerability protection service, is updated by ARERA as a monthly average of the price on the Italian wholesale market (the PSV day ahead) and published within the first 2 working days of the month following the reference month.

For the month of February, wholesale prices decreased again compared to those recorded in January, the price of the gas raw material alone (CMEM,m), for customers in the vulnerability protection service, is equal to € 35.21/MWh*.

Value of the raw material of the Vulnerability Protection Service