Arera power and gas tariff trend
Arera power and gas tariff trend
The Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and the Environment (ARERA) publishes the update of the economic conditions of the protection services, quarterly for power and monthly for gas.
Periodic Adjustment of Tariffs for Protected Services
Electricity Supply Tariffs
According to ARERA data for electricity, price projections for the firs quarter of 2026 indicate a 2.7% decrease in the electricity bill for the "typical" vulnerable customer[1] served under the Protected Market. The decrease is mainly attributable to the reduction in the equalization component within Energy expenditure and the downward revision of some items relating to Transport and meter management costs.
The expenditure for the typical vulnerable customer in the Protected Market will be approximately 590.73 euros for the period from April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026, an increase of 13% compared to the 522.97 euros recorded between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025.
From January 1, 2026, the reference price for electricity for the typical customer will be 27.97 cents per kilowatt-hour, including taxes.
Conditions for Transition to the Gradual Protection Service: From July 1, 2024, all non-vulnerable customers previously served under the Standard Offer regime were automatically transferred to the Gradual Protection Service, with the supplier selected via auction in the relevant area. This transitional service will be active for just under three years (until March 31, 2027), after which, in the absence of an explicit choice, customers will continue to be supplied by the same vendor on the free market.
Updates for Vulnerable Customers: ARERA will continue to monitor and update quarterly the economic conditions of the Standard Offer regime for vulnerable customers, including tariff updates such as those provided by Decree-Law 181/23 on energy security. The typical household has average annual electricity consumption of 2,700 kWh and a committed power of 3 kW.
[1] This refers to vulnerable customers with annual consumption of 2,000 kWh and a committed power of 3 kW. The calculation for the ‘average’ vulnerable customer, with consumption of 2,700 kWh/year and 3 kW power, is available on the Authority's website.
Quarterly variations of the economic protection conditions for power (ARERA data)
| QUARTER | POWER |
|---|---|
|
Q1 2026 |
- 2.7% |
|
Q4 2025 |
- 7.6% |
|
Q3 2025 |
+ 1.9% |
|
Q2 2025 |
- 2.4% |
|
Q1 2025 |
+ 18.2% |
|
Q4 2024 |
+ 8.8% |
|
Q3 2024 |
+ 12% |
|
Q2 2024 |
- 19.8% |
|
Q1 2024 |
- 10.8% |
|
Q4 2023 |
+ 18.6% |
|
Q3 2023 |
+ 0.4% |
|
Q2 2023 |
- 55.3% |
|
Q1 2023 |
- 19.5% |
|
Q4 2022 |
+ 59% |
|
Q3 2022 |
+ 0.4% |
|
Q2 2022 |
- 10.2% |
|
Q1 2022 |
+ 55% |
|
Q4 2021 |
+ 29.8% |
|
Q3 2021 |
+ 9.9% |
|
Q2 2021 |
+ 3.8% |
Natural gas supply rates
Starting from January 2024, the gas protection service has been replaced by the vulnerability protection service, intended for domestic customers only vulnerable. ARERA also makes public on its website (for the first time since the end of electricity protection) the fees for the month of July 2024 which apply to non-vulnerable domestic customers included in the Gradual Protection Service.
From January 2024, the Authority, with the same times and methods as in previous months, publish on the site the price component of the gas to cover supply costs, applied to customers of the vulnerability protection service. The component of the gas price to cover supply costs (CMEM,m), applied to customers in the vulnerability protection service, is updated by ARERA as a monthly average of the price on the Italian wholesale market (the PSV day ahead) and published within the first 2 working days of the month following the reference month.
For the month of January, which saw wholesale prices significantly increase compared to those recorded in December, the price of the gas raw material alone (CMEM,m), for customers in the vulnerability protection service, is equal to € 37.75/MWh*.
Value of the raw material of the Vulnerability Protection Service
| Month | Euro/GJ | Euro/Smc (**) | Euro/MWh |
|---|---|---|---|
|
January 2026 |
10,486333 |
0,403934 |
37,7508 |
|
September 2025 |
9,692583 |
0,373358 |
34,8933 |
|
August 2025 |
9,888000 |
0,380886 |
35,5968 |
|
July 2025 |
10,188944 |
0,392478 |
36,6802 |
|
June 2025 |
10,873278 |
0,418839 |
39,1438 |
|
May 2025 |
10,462361 |
0,403010 |
37,6645 |
|
April 2025 |
10,445611 |
0,402365 |
37,6042 |
|
March 2025 |
11,813833 |
0,455069 |
42,5298 |
|
February 2025 |
14,698278 |
0,566178 |
52,9138 |
|
January 2025 |
13,851917 |
0,533576 |
49,8669 |
|
December 2024 |
13,219972 |
0,509233 |
47,5919 |
|
November 2024 |
12,536917 |
0,482922 |
45,1329 |
|
October 2024 |
11,340833 |
0,436849 |
40,8270 |
|
September 2024 |
10,780083 |
0,415249 |
38,8083 |
|
August 2024 |
11,261417 |
0,433790 |
40,5411 |
|
July 2024 |
9,835472 |
0,378862 |
35,4077 |
|
June 2024 |
10,029278 |
0,386328 |
36,1054 |
|
May 2024 |
9,162750 |
0,352949 |
32,9859 |
|
April 2024 |
8,470028 |
0,326265 |
30,4921 |
|
March 2024 |
7,982639 |
0,307491 |
28,7375 |
|
February 2024 |
7,733361 |
0,297889 |
27,8401 |
(*) The values of the CMEM,m component published on www.arera.it
(**) for supplies of natural gas with a reference higher heating value equal to 0.038520 GJ/Smc
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