Arera power and gas tariff trend

Arera power and gas tariff trend

The Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and the Environment (ARERA) publishes the update of the economic conditions of the protection services, quarterly for power and monthly for gas.

Periodic Adjustment of Tariffs for Protected Services


Electricity Supply Tariffs


According to ARERA data for electricity, price projections for the fourth quarter of 2025 indicate a 7.6% decrease in the electricity bill for the "typical" vulnerable customer[1] served under the Protected Market. The decrease compared to the previous quarter is mainly due to the reduction in energy costs and dispatching components, which have decreased by 5% and 2.2%, respectively. The balancing component (PPE) also shows a negative variation of 0.4%. The general system charges remain unchanged.

 

It is reminded that, in implementation of the ‘bill decree’ (art. 1, paragraph 1, decree-law n. 19/25), those with an ISEE up to  25,000 euros will automatically receive the extraordinary contribution of 200 euros, which is cumulative with the social bonus received by households with an ISEE up to 9,530 euros or up to 20,000 euros for large families. 

To automatically receive the social bonuses and the extraordinary contribution, it is necessary to submit the Single Substitute Declaration (DSU) by December 31, 2025, and obtain an ISEE certificate within the thresholds set by the regulations.

 

The expenditure for the typical vulnerable customer in the Protected Market will be approximately 608.72 euros for the period from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, compared to 498.10 euros for the period from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024 (+22.2%).

From October 1, 2025, the reference price for electricity for the typical customer will be 28.75 cents per kilowatt-hour, including taxes.

 

Conditions for Transition to the Gradual Protection Service: From July 1, 2024, all non-vulnerable customers previously served under the Standard Offer regime were automatically transferred to the Gradual Protection Service, with the supplier selected via auction in the relevant area. This transitional service will be active for just under three years (until March 31, 2027), after which, in the absence of an explicit choice, customers will continue to be supplied by the same vendor on the free market.

 

Updates for Vulnerable Customers: ARERA will continue to monitor and update quarterly the economic conditions of the Standard Offer regime for vulnerable customers, including tariff updates such as those provided by Decree-Law 181/23 on energy security. The typical household has average annual electricity consumption of 2,700 kWh and a committed power of 3 kW.

 

[1] This refers to vulnerable customers with annual consumption of 2,000 kWh and a committed power of 3 kW. The calculation for the ‘average’ vulnerable customer, with consumption of 2,700 kWh/year and 3 kW power, is available on the Authority's website.

 

Quarterly variations of the economic protection conditions for power (ARERA data)

QUARTER POWER

Q4 2025

- 7.6%

Q3 2025

+ 1.9%

Q2 2025

- 2.4%

Q1 2025

+ 18.2%

Q4 2024

+ 8.8%

Q3 2024

+ 12%

Q2 2024

- 19.8%

Q1 2024

- 10.8%

Q4 2023

+ 18.6%

Q3 2023

+ 0.4%

Q2 2023

- 55.3%

Q1 2023

- 19.5%

Q4 2022

+ 59%

Q3 2022

+ 0.4%

Q2 2022

- 10.2%

Q1 2022

+ 55%

Q4 2021

+ 29.8%

Q3 2021

+ 9.9%

Q2 2021

+ 3.8%

Q1 2021

+ 4.5%

Natural gas supply rates

Starting from January 2024, the gas protection service has been replaced by the vulnerability protection service, intended for domestic customers only vulnerable. ARERA also makes public on its website (for the first time since the end of electricity protection) the fees for the month of July 2024 which apply to non-vulnerable domestic customers included in the Gradual Protection Service.

 

From January 2024, the Authority, with the same times and methods as in previous months, publish on the site the price component of the gas to cover supply costs, applied to customers of the vulnerability protection service. The component of the gas price to cover supply costs (CMEM,m), applied to customers in the vulnerability protection service, is updated by ARERA as a monthly average of the price on the Italian wholesale market (the PSV day ahead) and published within the first 2 working days of the month following the reference month.

 

For the month of September, which saw wholesale prices slightly lower than those recorded in August, the price of the gas raw material alone (CMEM,m), for customers in the vulnerability protection service, is equal to 34,89 €/MWh*.

Value of the raw material of the Vulnerability Protection Service

Month Euro/GJ Euro/Smc (**) Euro/MWh

September 2025

9,692583

0,373358

34,8933

August 2025

9,888000

0,380886

35,5968

July 2025

10,188944

0,392478

36,6802

June 2025

10,873278

0,418839

39,1438

May 2025

10,462361

0,403010

37,6645

April 2025

10,445611

0,402365

37,6042

March 2025

11,813833

0,455069

42,5298

February 2025

14,698278

0,566178

52,9138

January 2025

13,851917

0,533576

49,8669

December 2024

13,219972

0,509233

47,5919

November 2024

12,536917

0,482922

45,1329

October 2024

11,340833

0,436849

40,8270

September 2024

10,780083

0,415249

38,8083

August 2024

11,261417

0,433790

40,5411

July 2024

9,835472

0,378862

35,4077

June 2024

10,029278

0,386328

36,1054

May 2024

9,162750

0,352949

32,9859

April 2024

8,470028

0,326265

30,4921

March 2024

7,982639

0,307491

28,7375

February 2024

7,733361

0,297889

27,8401

January 2024

8,663972

0,333736

31,1903

(*) The values ​​of the CMEM,m component published on www.arera.it
(**) for supplies of natural gas with a reference higher heating value equal to 0.038520 GJ/Smc